A political showdown is taking shape in Homa Bay as the Linda Mwananchi movement prepares to hold a rally in the county on Sunday, with rival ODM factions trading accusations and mobilising supporters ahead of the meeting.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo are expected to lead the Linda Mwananchi team, in what will be a major test of its support in one of ODM's traditional strongholds.
The movement's entry into Homa Bay has triggered a sharp response from leaders allied to the ODM leadership, with Governor Gladys Wanga among those campaigning against the rally.
The heightened political activity has also raised security concerns.
Homa Bay County Commissioner Ronald Mwiwawi on Saturday warned politicians against mobilising youths to provide security at the event, saying the responsibility belonged to the National Police Service.
“I get concerned when leaders talk of ‘we are prepared’. Prepared for what?” Mr Mwiwawi said.
The commissioner questioned why politicians would organise their own security teams when police officers had already been deployed.
“When we have security personnel on the ground, how and when did it occur that our own leaders will have their own security—civilian security—and even talk of how they are deploying?” he asked.
Mr Mwiwawi urged residents attending the rally to remain peaceful and allow security officers to maintain order.
The warning came after Linda Mwananchi leaders raised concerns over alleged attempts to disrupt the meeting.
Mr Orengo has insisted that the rally will proceed, saying the movement would not be intimidated from exercising its constitutional rights.
The Homa Bay meeting comes as the Linda Mwananchi faction seeks to consolidate its position in Nyanza after holding rallies in other parts of the country.
Orengo has emerged as a senior figure in the movement, alongside Mr Sifuna and other politicians opposed to ODM's cooperation with President William Ruto's administration.
The faction has accused the ODM leadership of abandoning the party's opposition role by working with the government.
Its leaders have instead called for a stronger opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Sifuna has also insisted that the movement is not interested in splitting the opposition vote.
“As Linda Mwananchi, we will not divide the opposition vote,” he said during an earlier mobilisation tour.
He added that opposition leaders should work towards a single presidential candidate.
“We will look for Matiang’i, sit down with him and agree on the team that can deliver victory. Let him also share his views so that together we can field one team,” Mr Sifuna said.
The senator's position could become significant as opposition parties weigh their options ahead of 2027.
The movement has attracted support from politicians seeking to challenge the Ruto administration, while also becoming a source of tension within ODM.
Orengo has said Linda Mwananchi intends to expand its political reach beyond Nyanza.
“We are going to run all over Kenya, but we are going to begin with Homa Bay, Migori, Kisumu and Siaya to make sure that our home is safe and is going to be part of the Kenyan nation in this journey to reclaim Kenya,” he said.
The Homa Bay rally is therefore expected to provide an indication of the movement's strength in Nyanza.
Governor Wanga and other ODM leaders have, however, maintained that the party retains the support of the region and have defended its cooperation with the national government.
Wanga has argued that working with the government has enabled Homa Bay and other parts of Nyanza to benefit from development projects.
The disagreement has increasingly turned into a contest over the political direction of the region.
The rally also comes amid a broader debate over the political legacy of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga.
The Linda Mwananchi faction has sought to present itself as a defender of the principles associated with the former opposition chief, while the ODM leadership has maintained control of the party's formal structures.
Orengo has gone as far as linking the movement directly to Mr Odinga's political legacy.
“The spirit of Raila Amollo Odinga is in a party known as Linda Mwananchi. That is where the spirit of Raila is,” he said during a recent mobilisation meeting.
He has also called for opposition groups with similar political objectives to work together.
“We must work with other Kenyans who have the same ideology and the same spirit to make sure that we send Ruto home. We must as an opposition come together,” Mr Orengo said.
But the movement's critics have questioned whether its growing rallies can translate into a sustainable national political organisation.
The Homa Bay meeting will offer an important test because the county remains one of ODM's strongest areas of support.
A strong turnout would provide Mr Sifuna and Mr Orengo with evidence that their message is gaining traction within the party's traditional base.
A weak showing would give their opponents an opportunity to argue that Linda Mwananchi's influence remains limited to its leading politicians and their supporters.
For now, security remains the immediate concern.
Mwiwawi has urged all sides to avoid inflammatory language and warned that any attempt to organise parallel security structures could create unnecessary tension.
