The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has thrown Kenya’s 2027 presidential race into fresh uncertainty, with a new opinion poll suggesting that voters are unsure whether President William Ruto will find it easier or harder to win a second term without his long-time rival in the picture.
The TIFA Research survey, released on December 23, 2025, shows that 41 per cent of Kenyans believe Ruto’s re-election bid has become more difficult following Raila’s death. But the country remains split: 30 per cent think the president now has an easier path to victory, while 18 per cent say Raila’s absence changes nothing. Another 10 per cent say they are not sure what it means for the 2027 contest.
The mixed views reflect a broader sense of political unease, with many voters seeing Raila’s passing not as a clear advantage for the government, but as a moment that has unsettled the entire political landscape.
The poll suggests that Kenyans are increasingly judging the president on his record in office rather than on who stands in opposition. Respondents indicated that Ruto’s performance on the economy, jobs and the cost of living will weigh more heavily in 2027 than the shape of the opposition.
At the same time, support for Kenya’s main political parties has thinned out sharply since the 2022 General Election. ODM remains the most popular party, but only just, with 20 per cent support. President Ruto’s UDA follows at 16 per cent. Both parties have lost significant ground since August 2022, when they dominated the political field.
As party loyalties weaken, undecided voters have grown into the largest bloc in the country. The poll puts them at 30 per cent, double the figure recorded after the last election, a sign that many Kenyans feel unrepresented or unconvinced by the existing political options.
Jubilee Party trails with 11 per cent support, while smaller parties continue to struggle to break through. DCP stands at 6 per cent, Wiper at 4 per cent, and Ford-Kenya and DAP-Kenya at just 1 per cent each.
On the future of ODM, half of those surveyed expect the party to leave the Broad-Based Government and return to opposition before 2027. Three in ten believe it will stay in government, while the rest are unsure.
Even then, there is no clear agreement on who should lead ODM in the post-Raila era. About a third of respondents want the party to back one of its own leaders for the presidency. Others believe ODM should not endorse any candidate at all, or should instead support another opposition figure within the Azimio coalition.
In a striking reflection of how fluid Kenyan politics has become, nearly one in five respondents said they would support President Ruto as ODM’s candidate if political alliances were to shift and Kenya Kwanza failed to field its own contender.
