President William Ruto has emerged as Kenyans’ top preferred choice for the 2027 presidential election, according to a new TIFA Research survey released on May 14, 2026, even as the poll points to a tightly contested race and evolving political alignments across parties and regions.
The survey places Ruto at 24 per cent support, ahead of Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent. Embakasi East MP Edwin Sifuna follows with 10 per cent, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua stands at 9 per cent. Other candidates collectively account for 3 per cent, with 15 per cent of respondents remaining undecided.
TIFA says the findings point to a competitive but unsettled race. “The 2027 presidential race remains highly fluid, with no single candidate commanding dominant national support,” the report states.
The poll asked respondents whom they would prefer to see win the presidency, regardless of whether they intend to vote, offering an early snapshot of national sentiment ahead of the 2027 contest.
Despite Ruto’s lead, the margin remains narrow in a fragmented field, with opposition support spread across multiple candidates rather than consolidated behind a single challenger.
Trend data from May 2025 to May 2026 shows Ruto’s support rising from 18 per cent to 24 per cent, while undecided voters have declined from 24 per cent to 15 per cent. TIFA notes that this suggests “voter preferences are beginning to harden ahead of the next election.”
Analysts say the narrowing undecided bloc could become decisive as campaigns intensify and coalition-building accelerates across the political divide.
On party popularity, the survey indicates shifting ground among the major political formations. ODM leads at 18 per cent, followed closely by UDA at 17 per cent, while the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has surged to 16 per cent.
TIFA highlights DCP’s rise as one of the most notable developments in the current political cycle, pointing to what it describes as growing voter frustration with established parties.
The report suggests that the party landscape is becoming more competitive, with traditional political loyalties weakening in favour of emerging formations and personality-driven politics.
Inside ODM, the poll reveals internal divisions between two factions. About 73 per cent of ODM supporters back the “Linda Mwananchi” faction associated with Sifuna and leaders advocating for a stronger opposition stance, while 24 per cent support the “Linda Ground” camp linked to Oburu Odinga.
The findings suggest a growing shift within ODM’s base. “Many ODM supporters now prefer a more independent opposition approach instead of closer cooperation with the government,” the report notes.
Ethnic voting patterns remain prominent, according to the survey. Kalonzo Musyoka enjoys overwhelming support among Kamba respondents at 93 per cent, while Matiang’i leads among Kisii voters at 83 per cent. Ruto maintains strong backing among Kalenjin respondents at 73 per cent, while Rigathi Gachagua leads among Kikuyu voters at 70 per cent.
On succession dynamics within the ruling coalition, the survey shows strong support for Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as Ruto’s preferred running mate in 2027. He commands 59 per cent support among Kenya Kwanza supporters, ahead of Gladys Wanga at 12 per cent, Oburu Odinga and Hassan Joho at 3 per cent each, Musalia Mudavadi at 2 per cent, and Moses Wetang’ula at 1 per cent.
TIFA says Kindiki’s popularity reflects perceptions of continuity within government. “Kindiki is viewed as the most politically acceptable deputy option,” the report notes.
The survey further highlights shifting political dynamics that may shape future coalitions, with analysts expecting intensified realignments as parties position themselves for the 2027 vote.
