Nyanza’s political influence has historically been closely tied to whoever controls the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), making the region a critical battleground as rival factions position themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The latest confrontation erupted in Homa Bay, where violence broke out along roads leading into the county during a political rally involving the Linda Mwananchi movement. The clash highlighted a deeper struggle within ODM rather than a dispute over a single political gathering.
Fronted by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Linda Mwananchi has increasingly challenged the mainstream ODM leadership while seeking to establish itself as a broader political force.
The movement's decision to hold activities in Homa Bay, traditionally one of ODM’s strongest political bases, brought the rivalry into sharp focus as supporters of the competing factions confronted each other.
Two Factions, One Party
The current struggle can be traced to the death of ODM founder Raila Odinga in October last year, which left the party without the dominant political figure who had historically kept its competing interests together.
Two major camps have since emerged. One is led by Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who currently heads the mainstream ODM structure and has anchored the party within President William Ruto’s broad-based government.
The other is represented by the Linda Mwananchi movement, whose leaders have criticised ODM’s cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration and are pushing for a more confrontational opposition approach ahead of the 2027 election.
In Homa Bay, the rivalry has taken on a particularly localised dimension. Governor Gladys Wanga, who also serves as ODM’s national chairperson, mounted a campaign to counter the Linda Mwananchi rally and defend the mainstream party structure.
Wanga spent the days preceding the rally touring different parts of the county, including Suba South, the political base of Linda Mwananchi ally and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi.
Her mobilisation efforts were aimed at urging residents to reject what she described as rebel politics and remain loyal to the established ODM leadership.
The competing mobilisation efforts demonstrate the importance of Nyanza to both factions. Control of the region provides not only a substantial electoral base but also political legitimacy for leaders seeking to inherit Raila Odinga’s national political influence.
As the 2027 General Election approaches, the battle over ODM’s identity and political direction is therefore likely to intensify, with both factions seeking to convince voters that they represent the authentic political inheritance of the party and its founder.
