ODM is seeking to establish itself as an equal partner in any pre-election coalition agreement with President William Ruto’s UDA as political calculations for 2027 gather momentum.
Under Oburu Oginga’s leadership, the party has maintained that a future agreement should be based on a 50-50 sharing formula rather than an arrangement in which ODM plays a subordinate role.
Oburu publicly articulated the position in June 2026, indicating that the negotiations should cover more than Cabinet appointments. According to his remarks, the presidency and other positions that could form part of a coalition agreement should also be open for discussion.
The proposal signals ODM’s intention to secure a clearly defined role in any political partnership it enters ahead of the next General Election.
However, demanding an equal share of power is only the beginning of the negotiations. The party will need to demonstrate that its electoral support, leadership structures and ability to mobilise voters justify the arrangement it is seeking.
Raila Odinga’s Absence Creates a Leadership Test
The death of Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025, marked a major turning point for ODM, removing the veteran politician who had guided the party through decades of electoral contests and political negotiations.
Raila was central to ODM’s political identity. His influence extended beyond parliamentary representation, allowing him to rally supporters, manage competing ambitions and bring together factions that sometimes disagreed over strategy.
His experience in coalition negotiations also helped shape the party’s relationships with other political formations.
Oburu has inherited the responsibility of steering ODM through this transition while maintaining its relevance in national politics.
The challenge, however, is not simply to replicate Raila’s leadership style. It is to establish that ODM’s institutions and political networks can remain effective without the individual whose influence helped hold its different factions together.
For the party, this means demonstrating that its supporters and elected leaders can remain aligned around a common strategy even when important political decisions require compromise.
Can ODM Turn Its Political Base Into Bargaining Power?
ODM continues to possess several assets that could strengthen its position in negotiations with UDA.
These include elected representatives, established grassroots networks and a longstanding political identity that has given the party a significant place in Kenya’s multiparty system.
Yet the existence of these assets does not automatically guarantee an equal share of government.
ODM must show that it can maintain internal discipline, mobilise its traditional support base and organise a credible national campaign. Its negotiating position could also depend on whether leaders and supporters agree on the benefits of entering a coalition with Ruto.
A party that enters negotiations with competing internal positions may struggle to present a unified set of demands.
The coming months will therefore test not only Oburu’s negotiating approach but also the strength of ODM’s internal structures and the willingness of its senior figures to rally behind a common political direction.
What Does the 50-50 Formula Mean?
Oburu’s proposal seeks to ensure that ODM is treated as an equal partner rather than a political formation expected to provide support without receiving a comparable share of decision-making power.
The demand reportedly includes Cabinet positions, the presidency and other offices that might be negotiated under a coalition agreement.
Such an arrangement would raise important questions about how positions would be allocated, how disagreements between coalition partners would be resolved and what commitments each side would make to voters.
It would also require clarity on the practical meaning of equal partnership, including whether the formula applies to political appointments, leadership arrangements or a broader framework for governing together.
The negotiations could therefore involve more than agreeing on a numerical division of positions. Both parties would need to determine the terms under which they would cooperate and how the agreement would operate if political priorities diverged.
Ultimately, the details of any arrangement would matter as much as the headline demand for an equal share.
Ruto’s Position Adds Another Dimension
ODM is negotiating with a political formation led by a sitting president who already commands the machinery of government.
That creates a different negotiating environment from one in which both parties are seeking power from outside the administration.
For ODM, the task is to persuade UDA that an equal partnership would provide sufficient political value to justify the proposed arrangement.
For Ruto’s camp, the question would be how any agreement fits into its own electoral strategy, leadership ambitions and governing priorities.
Neither side can guarantee the outcome simply by announcing its preferred terms.
The strength of each party’s electoral networks, the level of support among voters and the political costs of walking away from negotiations could all influence the final arrangement.
ODM’s Internal Unity Could Shape the Outcome
Beyond the negotiations with UDA, ODM faces the challenge of managing different views within its own ranks.
Political parties preparing for elections must balance national coalition strategies with the ambitions of individual leaders seeking parliamentary seats, county positions and other offices.
In ODM’s case, the leadership transition following Raila’s death adds another layer of complexity.
Oburu will need to maintain cohesion while ensuring that party members understand the objectives behind any coalition negotiations.
If the leadership can build agreement around a clear strategy, ODM may be better positioned to present its demands consistently. If internal disagreements deepen, its ability to negotiate from a united position could be affected.
The party must also consider how its supporters would respond to an agreement with UDA, particularly given the political differences that have shaped the relationship between the two formations.
The Road to 2027
ODM’s demand for a 50-50 arrangement has placed the question of power-sharing at the centre of its preparations for the next General Election.
The proposal reflects the party’s desire to preserve its political influence and secure a meaningful role in any coalition government formed with UDA.
However, the final outcome will depend on negotiations, electoral calculations and the ability of both sides to agree on terms that serve their political interests.
For Oburu, the challenge is to prove that ODM can negotiate effectively in a new political era while keeping the party united.
For Ruto, any potential agreement would require balancing coalition-building ambitions with his own political priorities.
As 2027 approaches, the question is not simply whether ODM can demand half of the political power on offer, but whether it can demonstrate the unity, organisation and electoral strength needed to negotiate such an arrangement.
