Former Azimio Press Secretary Dennis Onsarigo has said that internal divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could pose a strategic challenge for President William Ruto as he seeks to consolidate support in regions traditionally loyal to the late Raila Odinga.
Speaking during an interview on a local radio station on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, Onsarigo observed that while it may appear politically convenient to see ODM weakened, a fragmented party could actually complicate outreach efforts by the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
“A disaggregated ODM is going to be problematic for him, because this is how I look at it. Odinga’s support base spans nearly 20 counties across the coastal, pastoral, and northern regions,” Onsarigo said.
He noted that counties such as Tana River County, Kilifi County, Mombasa County, Taita Taveta County, Kajiado County, Narok County, Laikipia County, Samburu County, Wajir County and Mandera County have historically backed Odinga, largely due to long-standing grievances around marginalisation and development disparities.
According to Onsarigo, a cohesive ODM would have provided a clearer negotiating partner for UDA in any attempt to make political inroads. However, with factions emerging within the party, Ruto’s strategy to consolidate Raila’s former support base could face unexpected complexities, as different camps may adopt divergent political positions ahead of the 2027 General Election.
