A sharp increase in fuel prices announced by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority has handed President William Ruto a fresh political headache as the country inches closer to the 2027 General Election, with rising living costs threatening to become a defining campaign issue.
The latest monthly review by EPRA pushed the price of Super Petrol up by Sh16.65 per litre while Diesel jumped by Sh46.29, sending shockwaves across households and businesses already struggling under economic pressure.
In Nairobi, motorists will now pay Sh214.25 per litre for petrol and Sh242.92 for diesel, increases expected to trigger higher transport fares, expensive food prices and rising operational costs across nearly every sector of the economy.
The sharp rise in diesel prices is particularly worrying because diesel powers public transport vehicles, trucks, factories, generators and farm machinery, meaning the increase is likely to spread rapidly through the economy.
For many Kenyans, the announcement immediately revived memories of past anti-government protests driven by anger over the high cost of living.
At several bus stages in Nairobi on Friday morning, commuters and matatu operators openly expressed frustration and fear over what the new prices could mean for their livelihoods.
“We have no option but to increase fares because fuel is everything in this business,” said Peter Mwangi, a matatu driver operating along the Nairobi-Westlands route. “Passengers will complain, but even us we are suffering. Spare parts are expensive, fuel is expensive and daily collections are down.”
A conductor in the city center said operators were already discussing fare adjustments beginning next week.
“People think matatu owners are making profits, but most vehicles are surviving day to day,” said Kevin Otieno, a conductor at the Railways bus station. “When diesel goes up by that amount, there is no way fares can remain the same.”
Commuters, however, said they were being squeezed from all sides.
“I already spend nearly half my salary on rent and transport,” said Mary Wanjiku, a receptionist in Nairobi. “Now they want us to pay more for fare and food at the same time. How are ordinary people expected to survive?”
For small traders, the increase signaled even harder days ahead.
Jane Atieno, who sells vegetables in Gikomba market, said transporters had already warned traders to expect higher delivery charges.
“When transport goes up, the price of tomatoes, onions and vegetables will rise automatically,” she said. “Customers will blame us, but we are also victims.”
Boda boda operators, many of whom rely on daily earnings to support families, warned that the increase could reduce customers as transport becomes more expensive.
“Customers are already bargaining for every trip,” said Samuel Kiptoo, a boda boda rider in Kasarani. “If we increase charges, some people will stop using boda bodas completely.”
The latest increase comes at a politically sensitive time for President Ruto, whose administration is under mounting pressure over the rising cost of living despite repeated assurances that the economy is stabilizing.
Ruto came to power in 2022 on promises of a “bottom-up” economic transformation aimed at helping ordinary Kenyans. But critics say rising taxes, expensive electricity, high fuel costs and stagnant incomes have eroded public confidence in the government.
Political analysts say fuel prices remain one of the most dangerous issues for any sitting government because the effects are immediate and widely felt.
“The cost of living can easily become the central political issue in 2027,” said political analyst James Otieno. “When citizens cannot afford transport or food comfortably, economic frustration quickly becomes political anger.”
Economist Kimathi Gichinga warned that the diesel increase could fuel inflation across multiple sectors.
“Diesel affects transportation, agriculture and manufacturing. Once the price rises sharply, the impact moves very quickly to consumers,” he said.
Opposition leaders are also expected to use the latest increase to intensify criticism against the Kenya Kwanza administration ahead of the next election cycle.
Already, social media platforms were flooded with complaints from Kenyans accusing the government of failing to cushion citizens from economic hardship.
Some users questioned how ordinary workers earning fixed salaries would cope with another increase in transport and household expenses.
At petrol stations in Nairobi, many motorists could only watch in frustration as attendants adjusted pump prices Friday morning.
“Filling a full tank is now becoming a luxury,” said businessman John Kamau at a station along Thika Road. “The government keeps talking about economic recovery, but wananchi are not feeling it.”
The government defended the increase, blaming rising international oil prices and higher import costs. Authorities also said part of the Petroleum Development Levy Fund would be used to cushion consumers from even higher prices.
But for many Kenyans, the explanation offered little reassurance.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the latest fuel hike is likely to deepen public debate over the state of the economy and whether the government has done enough to protect struggling households.
As matatu operators prepared for fare increases and traders anticipated more expensive deliveries, one reality was becoming increasingly clear: for many ordinary Kenyans, the battle for survival is becoming more expensive by the day — and the political consequences could follow President Ruto straight into the 2027 campaign season.
